Marine Le Pen Faces Verdict: A Potential Ineligibility at Stake

The Paris Criminal Court will deliver its verdict on Monday, March 31, in the case of the parliamentary assistants of Rassemblement National (RN) MEPs, a ruling that could reshape Marine Le Pen’s political future. The prosecution has requested a five-year ineligibility sentence with immediate enforcement, along with five years in prison, including two years of firm imprisonment, and a €300,000 fine.

A Political Threat That Marine Le Pen Downplays

In an interview with La Tribune Dimanche, the RN leader remains confident and dismisses the possibility of an immediate ineligibility ruling. “I read here and there that we are nervous. Personally, I am not, but I understand why some might be: with immediate enforcement, the judges have a right of life or death over our movement,” she stated. She added, “I don’t believe they will go that far.”

If such a sanction were imposed, Marine Le Pen would be barred from running for any office, including the 2027 presidential election, a decision she deems “profoundly undemocratic.” However, she affirmed that she would appeal in such a case, even though immediate enforcement would prevent any suspension of the sentence pending a new ruling.

Major Impact on the Political Landscape

This trial comes as Marine Le Pen continues to lead in voting intentions for the next presidential election. According to an Ifop poll published on Saturday, she would come first in the first round with 34 to 37% of the votes, depending on the tested scenarios. Her highest score is recorded against Olivier Faure (5%), Gabriel Attal (20%), and Laurent Wauquiez (8%). It slightly drops to 34% in a scenario where Édouard Philippe (21%) and Bruno Retailleau (11%) are in the race.

The verdict expected on Monday could therefore redefine the French political landscape. In the event of a conviction with immediate enforcement, the RN would have to quickly rethink its strategy for the future, while the opposition closely watches the repercussions of this decision.