German Federal Elections: Conservatives Lead, Historic Surge for AfD

Results of the February 23 Legislative Elections

The February 23rd early federal elections in Germany saw the conservative alliance of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) dominate, securing nearly 29% of the vote, ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which garnered between 19.5% and 20%. This marks a historic breakthrough for the AfD, which achieved its best result in history. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, despite a campaign marked by low popularity, only received 16.5%, placing third. The Greens and the Left Party (Die Linke) followed with 13.5% and 8.5% of the vote, respectively.

A Tense Climate and Immigration Issues at the Heart of the Campaign

The atmosphere surrounding these elections was particularly tense, intensified by issues like immigration, which dominated the campaign following a series of violent attacks attributed to refugees or asylum seekers. The AfD focused on an anti-immigration stance, while other parties, including the conservatives, took a tougher approach, advocating for stronger border controls.

The elections were also held in a delicate international and domestic context, marked by interference from the United States, with figures close to Donald Trump supporting the AfD, and a climate of heightened tensions due to violent attacks, such as the antisemitic stabbing near the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin.

The Path to the Chancellery: Alliances Needed

For the conservatives, the victory is unquestioned, but the lack of an absolute majority forces them to seek alliances, though they have ruled out any coalition with the AfD. The road to the chancellery remains challenging for Friedrich Merz, who will need to find partners to form a government.