Pope Francis’ death: who are the favourite cardinals to succeed him?

After the Death of Francis, the Catholic Church Seeks a New Pope

Following the death of Pope Francis, all eyes are turning to Rome, where the electing cardinals will gather in early May in the Sistine Chapel to choose the 267th successor of Peter. The funeral of the sovereign pontiff will take place this Saturday, April 26, at 10 a.m., followed by the general congregations, a traditional prelude to the conclave. Among the 135 electors – all under the age of 80 – nearly 80% were created cardinals by Francis himself. While the outcome of the conclave remains unpredictable, several figures are already emerging in Vatican circles.

A Frenchman Among the Papabili
Among the favorites, the name of Jean-Marc Aveline, cardinal and archbishop of Marseille, is being mentioned repeatedly. Born in Algeria, this son of Andalusian pieds-noirs has made the city of Marseille his field of engagement. Created a cardinal in 2022, he embodies a Church focused on interfaith dialogue and solidarity with the most vulnerable, particularly migrants. In September 2023, he warmly welcomed Pope Francis during his visit to Marseille. Recently elected president of the French Bishops’ Conference, this affable prelate represents the priorities of the late pontificate.

Contrasting Profiles for a Church in Transition
Alongside him, other cardinals are also attracting attention. The Italian Pietro Parolin, 70, the current Vatican Secretary of State, represents diplomatic experience. A discreet figure with a measured voice, Parolin, a close associate of Francis, is a man of dossiers, a deep expert on the Curia, and a key player in the historic agreement between the Holy See and China in 2018.

Still in Italy, Matteo Zuppi, archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Bishops’ Conference, is appealing due to his pastoral profile. Close to marginalized communities, a peace mediator in Mozambique and Ukraine, Zuppi is one of the faces of the social and inclusive Catholicism promoted by Francis.

Another notable candidate is Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. This polyglot Franciscan, an expert on the Middle East, has distinguished himself by his calls for dialogue in the midst of the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts.

Among Europeans, Claudio Gugerotti, a specialist in the Slavic world, and Jean-Claude Hollerich, archbishop of Luxembourg, a Jesuit and advocate of ecological transition, are also among the profiles being monitored.

A Universal Church, Voices from All Continents
The Church may also look to other horizons. Maltese Cardinal Mario Grech, coordinator of the synod on the future of the Church, has distinguished himself by his ability to balance tradition and openness. The Hungarian intellectual Peter Erdö, appreciated for his erudition and conservative positions, is also among the papabili.

The African continent is represented by several strong figures: Fridolin Ambongo, archbishop of Kinshasa, a respected voice in peace movements; Peter Turkson (Ghana), a champion of social justice on international forums; and Robert Sarah (Guinea), a figure of the ultra-conservative movement, often mentioned as a candidate to become the first Black pope.

Asia is not left out, with the charismatic Philippine Cardinal Antonio Tagle, known as the “Asian Francis,” a fervent defender of the poor and migrants. Charles Maung Bo (Myanmar) symbolizes the fight for human rights in a context of political violence.

The United States also has two prominent figures: Robert Francis Prevost, a former missionary in Peru and prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, and Timothy Dolan, the media-savvy Archbishop of New York, a staunch conservative with a jolly demeanor.

A Highly Spiritual Decision
But beyond the profiles and predictions, the choice of the next pope is a matter of spiritual discernment. In the secrecy of the conclave, the cardinals will need to reconcile loyalty to Francis’ legacy and responses to the challenges of the contemporary Church: synodality, the role of women, geopolitical fractures, the crisis of vocations, and societal expectations.

Nothing today can predict the outcome of this sacred election. One certainty remains: the future of the Catholic Church will once again be written beneath Michelangelo’s frescoes.

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