Putin expands the conditions for using nuclear weapons: a new strategic escalation

On Tuesday November 19, Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, signed a decree expanding the possibilities for the use of nuclear weapons. This act comes symbolically on the thousandth day of the war in Ukraine, and against a backdrop of heightened tensions between Moscow and the West.

A decree in response to new threats
According to the decree, the use of nuclear weapons would be justified in the event of a ballistic missile launch against Russia. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained that this change was aimed at adapting Russian doctrines to an international situation deemed “more threatening”, particularly in view of the West’s increased military support for Ukraine.

The decision comes on the heels of the US authorization for Kiev to use long-range missiles to strike targets on Russian soil. This new development is fuelling concerns in the Kremlin, which sees these actions as direct threats to national security.

A hardened nuclear doctrine
Since September, Vladimir Putin had already warned that Russia could use nuclear weapons in several cases:

• In the event of a massive air, missile or drone attack against its territory.
• If a non-nuclear country, such as Ukraine, carries out an offensive with the support of a nuclear power, such as the United States.
• If territory or resources are used to organize aggression against Russia.

These clarifications in the decree reflect a gradual hardening of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, reflecting growing tensions with Nato.

The consequences of military escalation
On the ground, the intensification of fighting between Russian and Ukrainian troops is accompanied by diplomatic and strategic escalation. Recent media reports suggest that strikes authorized by Washington could target areas such as Kursk, where North Korean military units have been deployed.

Since the start of the offensive in February 2022, Vladimir Putin has alternated between threats and signals of appeasement regarding the use of nuclear weapons. However, the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus last summer underlines the seriousness of what is at stake. This strengthened alliance between Moscow and Minsk has led to joint exercises to test their nuclear launch systems.

A fragile balance
At a time when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is getting bogged down, this revision of Russia’s nuclear doctrine accentuates the risk of a major confrontation. It also calls into question the extent of tensions between the major powers, the outcome of which remains uncertain.