The Strategic Importance of the Black Sea for Russia and Tensions Surrounding the Ceasefire

The Black Sea is a strategic commercial route for Russia, particularly for the export of its cereals, as it allows much of its production to be transported to Africa and the Middle East. As the world’s largest exporter of cereals, Russia is highly dependent on this maritime route. However, despite ongoing discussions, the situation remains complex.

A Crucial Maritime Corridor for Ukrainian Exports

In the early months of the conflict, an agreement was established between Kyiv and Moscow to secure exports via a maritime corridor. This arrangement allowed Ukraine to continue exporting its cereals, but Russia withdrew from the agreement in the summer of 2023. However, thanks to a coastal corridor that includes the port of Odessa, Ukraine has managed to restore export levels close to pre-war figures. More than 80% of its cereal exports now pass through this corridor.

Tensions Around the Ceasefire in the Black Sea

Recently, signs of détente emerged with the announcement of a ceasefire in the Black Sea between Russia and Ukraine. However, this agreement remains fragile. Moscow has set numerous conditions before accepting it, including the lifting of Western sanctions on Russian cereals and fertilizers. These restrictions are critical for Russia, as it seeks to restore its access to the global market, particularly for its fertilizer and cereal exports. The Kremlin has also demanded the end of sanctions on port services and Russian ships in order to reduce maritime insurance costs.

Economic and Military Challenges

Russia has lost some of its influence in the Black Sea, both militarily and economically. Sébastien Abis, director of the Demeter Club, highlights that Ukraine, although deprived of the grain agreement, has succeeded in securing its exports and has nearly restored pre-2022 normalcy. However, Russia remains the global leader in cereals, having broken its wheat export records over the past three years. But Western sanctions complicate its transactions, despite adaptations to bypass these restrictions, such as turning to new partners like Algeria and the United Arab Emirates.

Prospects for a Lasting Peace

Although the ceasefire appears to be a step forward, the conditions set by Russia make the agreement difficult to implement. Moscow is counting on European division to lift sanctions, particularly on financial institutions and agro-food exports. Ukraine, on the other hand, remains wary of any compromise, especially concerning sanctions, and President Zelensky has emphasized the need to maintain constant pressure on Russia. While negotiations continue, fighting on other fronts of the war persists, making any ceasefire fragile.

Thus, while the Black Sea remains a vital issue for both nations, halting hostilities remains uncertain as long as economic and military conditions are not resolved.