Marine Le Pen Faces Uncertain Political Future Ahead of Verdict

The leader of the National Rally (RN) will learn her judicial fate on Monday, March 31, as the verdict in the case of the party’s alleged misuse of European Parliament funds is delivered. She faces a possible five-year ineligibility sentence, which could bar her from running in the 2027 presidential election. While her party publicly maintains a calm stance, concerns are quietly mounting within its ranks.

A Composed Front Amid High Stakes

For weeks, Marine Le Pen has projected confidence regarding the upcoming court decision. Her allies echo this stance, insisting there is no panic. “We are patiently waiting,” assured RN deputy Julien Odoul. Le Pen herself, in an interview with La Tribune Dimanche, dismissed any anxiety but acknowledged the gravity of the verdict: “Judges hold a life-or-death power over our movement, but I don’t believe they will go that far.”

However, the stakes are immense. In November, prosecutors requested a five-year prison sentence, including two years of actual jail time, a fine of €300,000, and five years of ineligibility with immediate effect. Should the court uphold this request, Le Pen would retain her parliamentary seat but be unable to run for office until 2030—effectively ruling out a 2027 presidential bid.

Growing Concerns Behind the Scenes

While the party outwardly exudes confidence, internal unease is evident. Following the prosecution’s recommendation, the RN reacted with outrage, launching an online petition titled “Defend Democracy, Support Marine.” Le Pen herself called the request “outrageous” and akin to “political death.”

A party deputy admitted the initial shock: “We were stunned by the severity of the demand. But I can’t imagine the judges would deprive the French of the chance to vote for Marine Le Pen in 2027.”

Despite this defiant tone, some within RN worry about contingency plans. “We trust the justice system, but of course, there’s some concern,” acknowledged deputy José Gonzales. The possibility of immediate ineligibility has raised discussions on potential responses, from legal appeals to public demonstrations—an unusual strategy for a party historically hesitant to take to the streets.

What Comes Next?

If Le Pen is deemed ineligible, RN would be forced to reconsider its leadership strategy. While party president Jordan Bardella is seen as a natural successor, doubts persist about his readiness for a presidential race. “He struggled to position himself as a potential prime minister, let alone a presidential candidate,” confided one RN deputy.

Even if the verdict is unfavorable, the legal battle will be far from over. Le Pen has already indicated her intention to appeal, which could delay the final outcome for months.

“We’re not ruling out a positive surprise,” an RN deputy optimistically stated. “At least after the judgment, people will stop asking us the same questions about Marine’s future.”

However, unless Le Pen is fully acquitted—a scenario she herself sees as unlikely—the road to 2027 will be anything but smooth.